Championship Contenders and Offseason Storylines
The NBA’s 2025–26 season is fast approaching, and sports betting enthusiasts are analyzing the latest basketball odds for who will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy next June. Last season’s parity was historic – the league crowned a new champion for the seventh straight year – underscoring how competitive the betting markets have become. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder enter this season as the clear betting favorite, but several contenders made bold offseason moves to close the gap. Key player transfers, injuries, and coaching changes have shifted the landscape and the championship betting lines at major sportsbooks. Below we break down the top title contenders, compare future odds across bookmakers, and forecast which teams are most likely to reach (and win) the 2026 NBA Finals.
Odds Comparison: Across five major sportsbooks – Bet365, FanDuel, DraftKings, William Hill, and Betway – the Thunder are universally priced as favorites to repeat. Oklahoma City’s championship odds sit around +220 at Bet365 (meaning a $100 moneyline wager would profit $220), with FanDuel offering about +250 and DraftKings around +230. William Hill and Betway list OKC near the low +200s as well. No other team has odds shorter than +700, illustrating a sizeable gap. The next tier of contenders includes teams like the Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets in the +700 to +900 range, followed by a cluster around +1400 (e.g. New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers). These slight differences in pricing show the importance of line shopping – savvy bettors can find value by comparing odds across bookmakers before placing any futures wager.
Oklahoma City Thunder – The Team to Beat (West Favorite)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the odds-on favorite to win back-to-back titles, and it’s easy to see why. Fresh off capturing the 2025 championship in a thrilling seven-game Finals, the Thunder boast a young yet battle-tested core. NBA MVP and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at the peak of his powers, and rising stars like Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams provide two-way balance. Crucially, Oklahoma City kept its title team intact this summer – every key player remains under contract, and management opted for continuity over blockbuster trades. This stability, combined with another year of internal development, has oddsmakers confident in OKC; most have them at roughly +220 to +240 to repeat as champs (the shortest future odds on the board). By comparison, the next-best team is three to four times longer in price.
From a sports betting perspective, backing the Thunder carries the least lucrative payout, but also the highest implied probability of success. They were a dominant force last season – setting a record for average win margin – and barring injuries, they present a formidable challenge to the rest of the league. That said, repeating as champions is notoriously difficult. No team has pulled it off since the 2017–18 Warriors, and in recent years even reigning champs have often struggled to cover the spread in the playoffs or advance past the second round the following season. Oklahoma City will have to guard against complacency and league-wide adjustments. Still, with the Thunder’s depth, coaching continuity, and star talent locked in, they deserve their status as the early betting favorite. For bettors, OKC is a safe pick but not a value pick at such short odds – the potential return on investment is modest. Some may include the Thunder as the final leg of a futures parlay, while others might seek a bigger payout by targeting an underdog contender.
Cleveland Cavaliers – Eastern Conference Frontrunner
In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers have emerged as the top contender according to many betting markets. Sportsbooks like William Hill peg Cleveland around +700 to +800 to win the championship, reflecting their strong chances to come out of the East. The Cavaliers earned the East’s #1 seed last season with a stellar 64–18 record before falling short in the playoffs. Their young core – Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley – gained valuable experience from that run. Importantly, Cleveland’s path looks easier this year due to upheaval elsewhere in the conference. The Boston Celtics, last year’s primary threat, lost All-NBA forward Jayson Tatum to a serious Achilles injury and subsequently retooled their roster. The upstart Indiana Pacers, who eliminated Cleveland last postseason, will likely regress after an injury to their star Tyrese Haliburton. These developments leave the Cavs in pole position in the East.
Cleveland made a few savvy offseason additions to address their weaknesses. Veteran guard Lonzo Ball (a strong defender and playmaker) and forward Larry Nance Jr. were acquired to bolster the bench and defensive versatility. The Cavaliers now boast one of the league’s deepest rotations, capable of winning grind-it-out games and track meets alike. However, there are still questions about Cleveland’s playoff mettle. In consecutive years, the Cavs have underperformed in the postseason despite regular season success – raising concerns about their ability to execute when defenses tighten. Bettors considering Cleveland at +750 (FanDuel’s listing) should weigh these factors. The Cavaliers are a credible championship pick and a popular choice in futures markets, but not without risk. If their young stars can elevate in high-pressure moments, Cleveland has a real shot to reach the Finals. Given their relatively attractive odds compared to Oklahoma City, the Cavs could be seen as a value bet with upside – especially for those expecting the East to be wide open.
New York Knicks – Revamped Roster in the Title Mix
Another Eastern Conference power to watch is the New York Knicks, who have transformed from perennial underdogs into genuine contenders. The Knicks enter 2025–26 with roughly +800 to +900 odds to win it all (e.g. +850 at FanDuel and +900 at Bet365), placing them among the top five favorites league-wide. New York’s surge in esteem stems from both their playoff breakthrough and aggressive roster upgrades. Last season, the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals, falling in six games to Indiana. Sensing a championship window opening, the front office made bold moves this summer: All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns was acquired to anchor the frontcourt, and two-way forward OG Anunoby joined to bolster the wing. They’ll team up with returning star point guard Jalen Brunson, who has blossomed into an elite scorer and leader at Madison Square Garden.
With this new Big Three and a strong supporting cast, New York has one of the league’s most balanced rosters on paper. There is scoring, size, shooting, and defense across all positions. The major question mark is how the coaching transition will go – the Knicks parted ways with long-time coach Tom Thibodeau after last year’s playoff exit. A new coaching staff and system could lead to early growing pains as Towns and Anunoby integrate. If the chemistry clicks, however, the Knicks have the talent to win the East. From a betting standpoint, New York offers a tempting mid-range futures price. At +900 (an implied probability of about 10%), the payout is substantial enough to intrigue bettors looking for a value pick outside the top favorite. The Knicks’ odds indicate they are considered a leading challenger to Cleveland in the East. For those bullish on New York’s revamped lineup, a moneyline futures wager on the Knicks might yield a nice payoff. Just be mindful that consistency and playoff experience are factors – this group will need to prove it can handle championship expectations. As a result, some bettors may prefer the Knicks in a betting market like “to win Eastern Conference” or look for opportunities to hedge if they make a deep playoff run.
Houston Rockets – Superstar Arrival Boosts West Odds
Out West, the Houston Rockets have quickly risen in the championship conversation, entering the season as perhaps the biggest threat to the Thunder’s throne. Houston’s title odds shortened dramatically over the offseason – currently around +800 at DraftKings and Betway (down from +1800 earlier in the summer). The catalyst was a blockbuster trade in June that sent future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Durant to the Rockets. This acquisition gives Houston a proven closer and veteran champion to complement its emerging core. Last season, the Rockets were a solid #2 seed in the West but suffered a disappointing first-round upset. By adding Durant alongside guard Fred VanVleet (signed last year) and do-it-all center Alperen Şengün, Houston has assembled a formidable lineup with a potent mix of experience and youth.
Under coach Ime Udoka, the Rockets will look to integrate Durant’s scoring prowess without sacrificing defensive integrity. There is undeniable offensive firepower – Durant can take over in clutch moments, and young forwards like Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson are expected to improve this year. The key will be developing a defensive identity and chemistry among the new pieces. Oddsmakers clearly respect Houston’s moves; betting lines at major books place the Rockets neck-and-neck with any Eastern contender (some have Houston as the second-favorite overall behind OKC). From a bettor’s perspective, Houston at +850 (FanDuel’s latest line) offers an intriguing proposition. The Rockets have a superstar-driven upside that few teams can match, yet their championship odds still carry a decent payoff. This could be a classic value bet if you believe Durant’s arrival makes Houston a true title contender. On the other hand, bettors must consider Durant’s age (he’s in his late 30s) and the potential for injuries or adjustment issues. Houston is a high-ceiling, moderate-risk play in the futures market – capable of delivering a big reward or falling short of expectations. In sports betting terms, they’re a team that sharp bettors will watch closely as the season unfolds, monitoring any line movement in their odds based on early performance.
Other Teams to Monitor: Nuggets, Lakers, and Magic
Beyond the clear front-runners, a few other teams deserve mention as potential Finals contenders or value picks in the futures market:
Denver Nuggets – The 2023 champions retooled their roster over the summer to climb back into contention. Denver executed savvy trades (swapping out role players for fit and depth) and re-signed key contributors. Two years removed from a title, the Nuggets still have Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray at the core, and oddsmakers have taken notice of their improvements. Denver’s consensus odds sit around +750 to +800, making them a top-four championship choice at many books. If the Thunder slip, the Nuggets could be the Western Conference sleeper to capitalize. Bettors who believe in Denver’s resurgence might snag them as a longshot pick relative to the favorite – their current price yields a healthy potential payout.
Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers have dramatically reshaped their team in the post-LeBron era and remain on the periphery of the title chase. After an aggressive offseason, Los Angeles features a new franchise star and a retooled supporting cast built to contend now. The Lakers are generally listed around +1400 to win the 2026 Finals, indicating an outsider’s chance but not out of the question. In betting terms, they are an interesting dark-horse: not among the top few favorites, yet a team with enough talent to make a run if everything gels. Bettors might consider the Lakers as part of a futures parlay or monitor their progress early in the season for signs of a true contender. Any significant win streak or emergence of chemistry could cause their odds to shorten, at which point value-seekers would be glad to have locked in the higher number.
Orlando Magic – The Magic are a young squad on the rise and a trendy value bet to watch in the East. Their current championship odds hover around +1800 to +2000 (FanDuel had them at +1200 earlier in the summer, but the number has drifted longer). Orlando made a splash by trading for sharpshooter Desmond Bane, addressing a key need for perimeter scoring to complement former Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero. With one of the league’s best defensive units last year and a growing collection of talent, the Magic could surprise people. They likely aren’t ready to win a title yet, but as a longshot futures wager they offer upside if the Eastern Conference becomes unpredictable. Orlando’s youth and lack of playoff experience temper expectations – hence the long odds – but that also means a small wager could yield a big reward if this team exceeds forecasts. In any event, the Magic will be a fascinating team for betting markets as the season progresses, especially in game-by-game point spread and over/under spots where their defensive grit often kept scores low.
Betting Favorites, Value Plays, and Finals Forecast
As the season tips off, major bookmakers collectively signal the Oklahoma City Thunder as the team to beat. The consensus favorite Thunder have the shortest odds across the board, making them the proverbial “chalk” in championship futures. For bettors, OKC represents the safest pick – a powerhouse with continuity and star power – but not necessarily the most profitable one. Those looking for a bigger payday may gravitate toward a value play like the Cavaliers or Rockets, teams with strong cases to win it all at more favorable prices. It’s always wise to consider multiple scenarios: Could an underdog emerge from the pack? The parity of recent years suggests it’s possible – we’ve seen long droughts end (e.g. Denver in 2023, Boston in 2024, OKC in 2025) and bettors who backed those teams early were handsomely rewarded.
In terms of pure prediction, the 2025–26 NBA Finals matchup most likely to occur – based on current odds and roster evaluations – is Oklahoma City vs. Cleveland. The Thunder and Cavaliers each stand atop their respective conferences in talent and metrics, and a clash between them would pit an explosive young West team against a battle-tested, balanced East squad. However, futures wagering is about anticipating value: if you believe another club (say, New York with its revamped roster or Houston with its new superstar) has a better chance than the odds imply, that is where a smart moneyline wager can pay off. For example, the Knicks at +850 or Rockets at +800 offer significantly larger returns than betting the heavy favorite. These could be viewed as value picks if you’re bullish on their potential.
Finally, remember that an NBA season is long and betting markets will evolve. Championship odds will shift with each major injury, trade, or winning streak. A prudent strategy is to monitor how contenders perform against expectations in the first few months. If a team like the Lakers or Magic comes out hot, their odds will shorten, but early backers will have locked in a great number (and could even hedge later for guaranteed profit). Conversely, a slow start by a favorite might lengthen their odds and present a mid-season betting opportunity. In futures betting, timing and foresight are key.
Forecast: The Thunder deserve their status as favorites, but repeating will be a tall order. The most likely NBA Finals participants are the Thunder and one of the top Eastern hopefuls (Cleveland or New York), with Oklahoma City having a slight edge to win it all again. Nevertheless, given the competitive balance in today’s NBA, no outcome would be shocking. Bettors should keep an open mind and an eye on the betting lines as the season unfolds, ready to seize value when it appears. This season promises high drama on the court – and plenty of angles for those looking to make sports betting history with a well-placed championship wager.
All odds referenced are pre-season future odds and subject to change. Bet responsibly and enjoy what should be an exhilarating 2025–26 NBA campaign.
