Competitions included today: NHL — preseason
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers
📌 Bet: Tampa Bay ML
📈 Model Probability: 62.1%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.61 (−164)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.69 (−145)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM ET → 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Kia Center, Orlando FL
Reasoning: Florida is on a back‑to‑back after playing Carolina the night before. Tampa’s elite goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy anchors a tandem confirmed on the Lightning roster, while Sergei Bobrovsky is expected for Florida. Tampa also enjoyed superior special‑teams efficiency (28.34 % PP) and scoring margin last season. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens
📌 Bet: Ottawa ML
📈 Model Probability: 60.0%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.67 (−150)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.75 (−133)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM ET → 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Videotron Centre, Quebec City QC
Reasoning: Ottawa’s strong power play and improved underlying metrics (CF% ≈50.6) give them an edge over a rebuilding Canadiens team that struggled at 5‑on‑5. Goalie Linus Ullmark was added in the off‑season and is confirmed on the Senators roster. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Columbus Blue Jackets vs Washington Capitals
📌 Bet: Washington ML
📈 Model Probability: 58.5%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.71 (−141)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.79 (−126)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM ET → 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Nationwide Arena, Columbus OH
Reasoning: The Capitals’ roster features a reliable goalie tandem of Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren, and their penalty kill was among the league’s best. Columbus continues to rebuild; while Elvis Merzlikins is listed on the roster, the team’s underlying metrics lag behind Washington’s. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Chicago Blackhawks vs Detroit Red Wings
📌 Bet: Detroit ML
📈 Model Probability: 57.5%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.74 (−135)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.83 (−121)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM CT → 8:00 PM ET
Venue: United Center, Chicago IL
Reasoning: Detroit is on a back‑to‑back but still projects ahead of Chicago thanks to superior special teams and a deeper roster. John Gibson headlines the Red Wings goaltending group, while Chicago relies on Arvid Söderblom and Spencer Knight. The Blackhawks’ CF% and xGF% ranked near the bottom of the league last season. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Minnesota Wild vs Winnipeg Jets
📌 Bet: Winnipeg ML
📈 Model Probability: 60.2%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.66 (−151)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.74 (−134)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM CT → 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Xcel Energy Center, St Paul MN
Reasoning: The Jets’ elite goalie Connor Hellebuyck gives them a significant edge. Winnipeg also boasts stronger 5‑on‑5 metrics (CF 51.2 %, xGF 52.8 % ) and a penalty kill above 81 %. Minnesota is competitive but leans on Filip Gustavsson and a young lineup. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — St. Louis Blues vs Dallas Stars
📌 Bet: Dallas ML
📈 Model Probability: 59.7%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.68 (−148)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.76 (−132)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM CT → 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Enterprise Center, St Louis MO
Reasoning: Dallas enjoyed one of the league’s top Corsi and expected‑goal differentials last season, and the Oettinger/DeSmith tandem ranks among the best. St. Louis is competitive but lacks the same depth, making Dallas the model’s choice. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Utah Hockey Club vs Los Angeles Kings
📌 Bet: Los Angeles ML
📈 Model Probability: 62.0%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.61 (−163)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.69 (−144)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM MT → 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Idaho Central Arena, Boise ID
Reasoning: The Kings own a high‑end goalie duo in Darcy Kuemper and Anton Forsberg and play a structured 5‑on‑5 game (CF% ≈52.0). Utah, while improving, has a middling penalty kill and transitions to a new market. The elevation in Boise could suppress scoring. Volatility=No.
🏟 Hockey — NHL — Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers
📌 Bet: Under 6.5 Total Goals
📈 Model Probability: 70.3%
💵 Fair Odds: 1.42 (−237)
✅ Min Acceptable Odds: 1.49 (−203)
⏱ Odds Checked At (ET): 09/30/2025 07:28:00 ET
🗓 Scheduled: 7:00 PM ET → 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Kia Center, Orlando FL
Reasoning: Both teams feature elite goaltending and top‑10 penalty kills. With Florida on a back‑to‑back and playing in a neutral arena, the model expects a lower‑scoring affair despite Tampa’s strong power play. Volatility=No.
🔢 Total: 8 price‑target picks (markets closed at snapshot)
🧠 Rationale: The preseason slate was frozen with roster sanity and schedule checks, ensuring each game starts more than three hours after the current time. Goalie names were verified against official rosters and Daily Faceoff rankings. As no sportsbooks posted odds at the snapshot, we provided price‑target picks with fair and minimum acceptable odds derived from model probabilities. These targets help bettors identify value once markets open.
